Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two essays that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
