Just 60 days prior that the young forward was standing on the Sunderland turf, looking confused as Unai Emery admonished him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. At that point, with the team failed to win in six, it wasn't clear if his displays were a sign or the reason of Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, though, the touchline reaction was decidedly more positive. After the England international curled home his second strike to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and after failing to win their initial half-dozen fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Genuine Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to answer. The historical record, a general sense of the club, argues against it. Additionally, they have not been completely commanding during this run, while the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, on just two occasions have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the other team. For a team which has just won ten consecutive victories, they appear strangely fragile – however right now the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach appears to be to exchange chances with the opposition and then rely on their star man to bail them out with two precise efforts. This was the case at Leeds, it happened in London, and again against United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled right inside the goal frame from a wide position. For his second was essentially a slight scruffier version of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more efforts on goal. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the biggest rival Villa will encounter as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner forever.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs will eventually return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a genuine bid, but they surely can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable the team would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, no one envisioned Rogers as the year closed would be spearheading a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it seems so surreal. As the hero stood in front of the Villa faithful when the game ended conducting the cheers, he seemed to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
